Type of Document	Dissertation
Author	Butler, Melanie A.
URN	etd-06052008-162246
Title	Actuarial Prediction of Institutional Maladjustment and Recidivism in Severe Male Juvenile Offenders
Degree	Doctor of Philosophy
Department	Psychology, Department of
Advisory Committee	Advisor Name Title Bryan Loney Committee Chair Chris Schatschneider Committee Member Janet Kistner Committee Member Jeanette Taylor Committee Member Thomas Blomberg Committee Member
Keywords	Recidivism Psychopathic Traits Institutional Maladjustment Juvenile Offenders
Date of Defense	2008-05-06
Availability	unrestricted
Abstract The current study examined the contribution of multiple well-established risk variables to the prediction of institutional maladjustment and recidivism. The incremental validity of individual risk variables was assessed and actuarial models were developed with the intent of maximizing risk prediction. A total sample of 489 severe male juvenile offenders was divided into separate derivation and validation sub-samples for the development of actuarial models. In partial support of study hypotheses, regression analyses revealed that multiple criminal history variables (e.g., age of first adjudication, prior commitments) uniquely contributed to the prediction of institutional maladjustment and recidivism. The actuarial models performed similarly across derivation and validation samples. However, with the exception of institutional maladjustment, the actuarial models exhibited low prediction accuracy (e.g., AUC = .59 - .64). Cut-scores derived for the models were particularly prone to false positives. Implications of the current findings for juvenile risk assessment and future actuarial modeling efforts are discussed.
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