Type of Document	Thesis
Author	Lowry, Michael Robert
Author's Email Address	mrl5844@fsu.edu
URN	etd-12192008-105105
Title	Developing A Unified Superset In Quantifying Ambiguities Among Tropical Cyclone Best Track Data For The Western North Pacific
Degree	Master of Science
Department	Meteorology, Department of
Advisory Committee	Advisor Name Title James J. O'Brien Committee Chair Jon E. Ahlquist Committee Member Mark A. Bourassa Committee Member Robert E. Hart Committee Member
Keywords	Climate Change Global Warming Climate Observation Best Track Superset Western North Pacific Pacific Tropical Cyclone HKO Hong Kong Observatory STI Shanghai Typhoon Institute JMA Japanese Meteorological Agency JTWC Joint Typhoon Warning Center Typhoon Reconnaissance Dvorak
Date of Defense	2008-11-26
Availability	unrestricted
Abstract In the western North Pacific basin, several agencies archive "best track" data of tropical cyclones. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) in Hawaii is responsible for the issuance of tropical cyclone warnings for United States Department of Defense interests and has a record of tropical cyclones extending back to 1945. The Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) is the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) official Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) for the western North Pacific basin and has best track tropical cyclone data extending back to 1951. The Shanghai Typhoon Institute (STI) of the Chinese Meteorological Administration and the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) of the Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region also have 6-hourly tropical cyclone data records from 1949 and 1961, respectively. Western North Pacific (WNP) data sets are investigated in order to quantify ambiguities in position and intensity estimates among the forecast institutions through the development of a unified Superset. Ambiguities among the two primary warning centers (JMA and JTWC) are presented in the context of a changing observation network, observational tools, and analysis techniques since the beginning of tropical cyclone records. Mean differences in position estimates are found between the two centers on the order of 60 km prior to the introduction of meteorological satellites in 1961 and near 50 km following the deactivation of aircraft reconnaissance in 1987. Results show a step function change among intensity in JTWC and JMA best track data from 1989 to 1990 due to varying applications of the Dvorak intensity estimation technique. Parsing best track data into landfall subsets does not ameliorate interagency differences in position or intensity estimates. Additionally, analyses from Superset data call into question the veracity of JTWC best track data during the period from 1995-1999. The applicability of adopting an individual data set in discerning long term climate trends is examined in light of these differences. Past efforts to analyze, assemble, and maintain a complete, reliable best track tropical cyclone data set for the WNP are discussed among topical methods of incorporating the Superset within a basin-wide re-analysis.
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